Oscar Preview and Prediction

The Oscars hit an all-time low in viewership in 2018, at around 26 and a half million viewers. The second lowest was 2008, which had nearly 5 million more overall viewers. I have never been a huge Oscar fan to begin with, because it can feel very self-congratulatory, and has been in the past accused of being something of a good old boy’s club, with the voters being primarily white males, and the nominations have reflected that. This was brought to light with the #OscarsSoWhite movement after no people of color were nominated for major awards in back to back years, 2015 and 2016. This seems to be trending toward progress, as the last few years has seen a number of women and POC nominees and winners. This is in large part due to the increase in female and non-white voters, which according to the Academy, is up to 31 percent women, and non-white is up to 16 percent. We hope to see this trend to continue, because diversity is not only good for movie watchers, but good for the industry as a whole.

With that being said, after taking a few years off, I have decided to give the Oscars another chance. Every year it seems that I have not seen most of the movies nominated, but this year, as the nominees were announced I was pleased. I had seen, or planned to see, a number of the films. The most nominated films of the year are The Favourite and Roma, each with 10. A Star is Born and Vice each clocked 8 nominations, while Black Panther has 7. This year also marked the first time a superhero film (Black Panther) was nominated for Best Picture. The film has a predominately black cast making this all the more groundbreaking and an encouraging sing that things are truly changing for the better.

Traditionally comic book movies have been snubbed in the eyes of fans, with the occasional exception. One such exception is Heath Ledger’s portrayal as one of the greatest comic book characters ever, the Joker, in Christopher Nolan’s “Dark Knight”. This year marks the 10-year anniversary that Ledger won Best Supporting Actor posthumously after tragically dying of an accidental overdose. Ledger passed away 6 months before the release of the Dark Knight, never being able to see just how beloved this take on an iconic character was.

Every time my family and I watch the Oscars, we fill out ballets and put a little friendly wager on who will get the most categories correct. Most of the years I had no idea and simply just wanted to play along. This year is different. I have done my research, have watched the nominated films, and I am more prepared than I have ever been. Here are my predictions for this years Oscars (The films/actors in bold are who I believe will take home the award).

Visual Effects:

“Avengers: Infinity War”

“Christopher Robin”

“First Man”

“Ready Player One”

“Solo: A Star Wars Story”

Costume Design:

“The Ball of Buster Scruggs,” Mary Zophres

“Black Panther,” Ruth E. Carter

“The Favourite,” Sandy Powell

“Mary Poppins Returns,” Sandy Powell

“Mary Queen of Scots,” Alexandra Byrne

Makeup and Hair:

“Border”

“Mary Queen of Scots”

“Vice”

Original Song:

“All The Stars” from “Black Panther” by Kendrick Lamar, SZA

“I’ll Fight” from “RBG” by Diane Warren, Jennifer Hudson

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns” by Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman

“Shallow” from “A Star Is Born” by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt and Benjamin Rice

“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch

Original Score:

“BlacKkKlansman,” Terence Blanchard

“Black Panther,” Ludwig Goransson

“If Beale Street Could Talk,” Nicholas Britell

“Isle of Dogs,” Alexandre Desplat

“Marry Poppins Returns,” Marc Shaiman, Scot Wittman

Production Design:

“Black Panther,” Hannah Beachler

“First Man,” Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas

“The Favourite,” Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton

“Mary Poppins Returns,” John Myhre, Gordon Sim

“Roma,” Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez

Sound Mixing:

“Black Panther”

“Bohemian Rhapsody”

“First Man”

“Roma”

“A Star Is Born”

Sound Editing:

“Black Panther,” Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker

“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Warhurst

“First Man,” Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou Morgan

“A Quiet Place,” Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl

“Roma,” Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay

Film Editing:

“BlaKkKlansman,” Barry Alexander Brown

“Bohemian Rhapsody,” John Ottman

“Green Book,” Patrick J. Don Vito

“The Favourite,” Yorgo Mavropsaridis

“Vice,” Hank Corwin

Best Foreign Language Film:

“Capernaum” (Lebanon”

“Cold War” (Poland)

“Never Look Away” (Germany)

“Roma” (Mexico)

“Shoplifters” (Japan)

Best Live Action Short Film:

“Detainment,” Vincent Lambe

“Fauve,” Jeremy Comte

“Marguerite,” Marianne Farley

“Mother,” Rodrigo Sorogoyen

“Skin,” Guy Nattiv

Best Documentary Short Subject:

“Black Sheep,” Ed Perkins

“End Game,” Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman

“Lifeboat,” Skye Fitzgerald

“A Night at the Garden,” Marshall Curry

“Period. End of Sentence.,” Rayka Zehtabchi

Best Documentary Feature:

“Free Solo,” Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi

“Hale County This Morning, This Evening,” RaMell Ross

“Minding the Gap,” Bing Liu

“Of Fathers and Sons,” Talal Derki

“RBG,” Betsy West, Julie Cohen

Cinematography:

“Cold War,” Lukasz Zal

“The Favourite,” Robbie Ryan

“Never Look Away,” Caleb Deschanel

“Roma,” Alfonso Cuaron

“A Star Is Born,” Matthew Libatique

Original Screenplay:

“The Favourite,” Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara

“First Reformed,” Paul Schrader

“Green Book,” Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly

“Roma,” Alfonso Cuaron

“Vice,” Adam McKay

Adapted Screenplay:

“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,” Joel Coen, Ethan Coen

“BlacKkKlansman,” Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

“Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

“If Beale Stree Could Talk,” Barry Jenkins

“A Star Is Born,” Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Animated Short:

“Animal Behaviour,” Alison Snowden, David Fine

“Bao,” Domee Shi

“Late Afternoon,” Louise Bagnall

“One Small Step,” Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas

“Weekends,” Trevor Jimenez

Animated Feature:

“Incredibles 2,” Brad Bird

“Isle of Dogs,” Wes Anderson

“Mirai,” Mamoru Hosoda

“Ralph Breaks the Internet,” Rich Moore, Phil Johnston

“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman

Director:

Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”

Pawel Pawlikowski, “Cold War”

Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”

Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”

Adam McKay, “Vice”

Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, “Vice”

Marina de Tavira, “Roma”

Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”

Emma Stone, “The Favourite”

Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”

Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”

Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”

Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”

Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Sam Rockwell, “Vice”

Lead Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”

Glenn Close, “The Wife”

Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”

Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”

Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Lead Actor:

Christian Bale, “Vice”

Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”

Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”

Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”

Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”

Best Picture:

“Black Panther”

“BlacKkKlansman”

“Bohemian Rhapsody”

“The Favourite”

“Green Book”

“Roma”

“A Star Is Born”

“Vice”